Stanbic IBTC PMI Reports Strong Business Expansion Despite Slight Moderation
In November, the Nigerian private sector experienced a notable boost in demand driven by the launch of new products, resulting in increased new orders and overall business activity. The ongoing decline in inflationary pressures also contributed positively. Input costs grew at the slowest rate in nearly five years, while output prices increased to their lowest since April 2020. The key indicator from the survey, the Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®), stayed well above the 50.0 threshold that signals expansion. The PMI has consistently indicated improving business conditions throughout the past year.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, remarked: “Nigeria’s headline PMI remained in the expansionary territory in November but moderated when compared to October. Nonetheless, the strong output continues to reflect easing inflationary pressures which is helping to support higher sales for businesses who are now launching new products and securing more customers. Hence, new orders rose to a three-month high of 56.9 points from 56.3 points in October. More positively, new orders have now increased in each of the past 13 months. Consequently, output increased across all four broad sectors (Agriculture, Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail, and Services) covered by the survey, led by Manufacturing and Services. ”
He added, “Input costs continue to soften, easing to their slowest since December 2020, underpinned by weaker rises in both purchase prices and staff costs. Survey participants that signalled a rise in purchase prices compared to October linked this to higher costs for raw materials and transportation. The changes in output prices also mirrored the input cost. This is as output price inflation also eased in November, slowing for the sixth time in seven months to the weakest since April 2020.”
Looking ahead, Oni projected Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.0% in 2025, with Manufacturing and Services sectors expected to outperform their 2024 levels. He highlighted government initiatives in infrastructure, livestock, trade, and investment attraction, along with the Dangote refinery’s potential to positively impact various sectors. “Lower interest rates, aligned with reduced inflation and exchange rate stability, should bolster private consumption and investments in 2026. These factors indicate that more sectors will contribute to Nigeria’s real GDP growth next year, likely improving citizens’ quality of life compared to 2025,” he stated.
The latest PMI reading of 53.6 indicated a solid expansion in the private sector, slightly below October’s 54.0 but still robust. Growth was driven by higher sales, increased customer acquisition, and new product launches, which boosted new business. The survey’s findings show that new orders rose for the thirteenth consecutive month at the fastest pace in three months. Companies benefited from declining inflationary pressures throughout much of 2025.
While input costs remained high, they increased at the slowest pace in nearly five years, due to weaker rises in purchase prices and staff costs. Consequently, output price inflation slowed for the sixth time in seven months, reaching its lowest point since April 2020. Firms expanded their workforce modestly and increased purchasing activities, with inventories rising at the fastest rate since June 2023 as companies stockpiled ahead of future demand.
Despite increased capacity, work backlogs grew for the first time in four months, mainly due to delayed customer payments. Conversely, vendor performance improved for the fifth month in a row, with shorter delivery times. Business confidence declined for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its lowest since May, though some firms remained optimistic about future growth due to ongoing investment and expansion plans.