Global Advertising Spend to Hit $1.19 Trillion by End of 2025 as Big Tech Companies Dominate
A recent study by WARC, the global authority on marketing effectiveness, indicates that worldwide advertising expenditure is on track to reach $1.19 trillion by the end of 2025, representing an 8.9% increase. This upward revision of 1.5 percentage points from WARC’s September forecast is driven by robust performance from Big Tech platforms and a limited impact from global trade tariffs.
Next year, global ad spend is expected to grow by 9.1%, reaching approximately $1.30 trillion, while projections for 2027 envisage a 7.9% increase, taking the market’s total to around $1.40 trillion. This growth signifies a doubling of the ad market since the pandemic and equates to roughly $150 spent per person worldwide.
The latest projections are part of WARC Media’s “Global Ad Trends: Media’s New Normal” report, which highlights how the advertising ecosystem in 2025 is fundamentally different from that of the past. Alex Brownsell, Head of Content at WARC Media and author of the report, explains: “Advertising has broken away from the economic cycle, and behaves in a way that doesn’t feel reflective of the real economy. New money has arrived from digital-native categories, while commerce has redrawn the measured media map, and Big Tech’s self-reinforcing flywheel is harvesting almost all incremental dollars.”
WARC’s forecasts are based on data aggregated from over 100 markets worldwide, leveraging a proprietary neural network that analyses more than two million data points to project advertising investment patterns.
**Dominance of Major Platforms**
The report reveals that advertising spend continues to consolidate among three key players: Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, which together will account for 56.1% of the global ad market (excluding China) this year — equivalent to $556.6 billion — rising to 58.0% in 2026.
While emerging platforms such as TikTok and Reddit are gaining share—TikTok is projected to generate $45.2 billion in ad revenue by 2027—these figures remain significantly below those of established giants. For context, Meta’s ad revenue is expected to reach over $150 billion in 2027.
The concentration of growth among Big Tech is reinforced by their scale and ability to invest heavily in research and development, particularly in AI-driven optimisation and data infrastructure. Meta reinvests around 30% of its quarterly earnings into R&D, fueling products like Reels and Advantage+ that attract increasing advertiser demand. Amazon’s advertising and retail media growth similarly feeds into improved data signals and higher margins, creating a self-perpetuating flywheel.
**Shift Away from the Open Web**
This ecosystem dominance is impacting traditional digital advertising channels. Google’s Display Network, the largest globally, is projected to experience its third consecutive year of declining ad revenue in 2025, a trend expected to persist.
Furthermore, the share of ad dollars flowing through fee layers is shrinking, with more revenue going directly to major platforms. As Brian Weiser, Principal at Madison & Wall, notes, this boosts Big Tech revenues even when overall ad spend remains flat. Lower creative costs, tighter agency margins, and cheaper ad-tech services further sustain platform prosperity.
**Category Trends and Regional Outlook**
Fast-growing sectors such as cross-border e-commerce are investing heavily in search, social, and retail media. Retail media now accounts for approximately 14.7% of global ad spend, exemplifying the shift towards bottom-of-the-funnel channels. Notably, over half of practitioners overseeing large budgets plan to increase brand-building investments despite economic headwinds, with data from WARC’s Voice of the Marketer survey supporting this trend.
While overall ad spend accelerates, many economies face stagnant wages, inflation, and higher borrowing costs, creating a complex backdrop for growth. Smaller and medium-sized businesses, trade-marketing funds, and retail media networks are driving digital-native budgets beyond traditional channels.
In particular, categories like Clothing & Accessories see over 80% of spend flowing into retail media, paid search, and social platforms—highlighting the shift of incremental growth to digital ecosystems.
Regionally, the United States remains the largest advertising market, accounting for 35.3% of the global total, equating to $421.1 billion in 2025, with an expected growth of 7.0% next year. China follows as the second-largest market, forecast to grow 6.9% to $200.1 billion this year. Europe’s largest market, the UK, is valued at $58.1 billion, with continued growth expected.
Other key markets, including Canada, Mexico, India, and Brazil, are also positioned for significant growth, driven by global events and increasing digital adoption.
As the global advertising landscape evolves rapidly, the data underscores a clear shift towards digital-native, platform-centric strategies, with Big Tech continuing to dominate the market’s growth trajectory.