Global Advertising Spend to Reach $1.34 Trillion in 2026, WARC Forecasts
Global advertising expenditure is forecast to rise by 11.9% to $1.34 trillion in 2026, despite cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, according to WARC Media’s Global Ad Spend Forecast Q3 2026 update.
The forecast follows growth of 10.0% in both 2024 and 2025. WARC says advertising investment is being supported by substantial corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI), as well as major events including the Olympic Games, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid-term elections.
However, the organisation cautioned that further escalation of global tensions could pose risks to the outlook.
“These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth – particularly from the AI boom – is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others,” said Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data.
Social media leads channel growth
Social media is forecast to record the strongest growth among major advertising channels in 2026, rising by 21.3% to $394.6 billion. WARC expects the channel to exceed $500 billion in 2028.
Video on demand is forecast to grow by 15.1% to $48.4 billion, while retail media is expected to increase by 14.3% to $202.1 billion. Search advertising is projected to rise by 14.2% to $295.7 billion, and digital out-of-home advertising by 13.7% to $21.7 billion.
Social media, search and retail media are expected to account for 66.4% of global advertising expenditure in 2026. Their combined share is forecast to reach 70.0% by 2028.
Technology and electronics among fastest-growing categories
Technology and electronics is expected to be the fastest-growing product category in 2026, with advertising expenditure forecast to rise by 20.7% compared with 2025. Travel and transport is projected to grow by 19.3%, followed by automotive at 17.8%.
Social media is expected to capture 40.2% of advertising expenditure in the technology and electronics category this year.
Growth expected to moderate after 2026
WARC forecasts that global advertising growth will moderate to 8.4% in 2027, taking total expenditure to $1.46 trillion. In 2028, the market is projected to grow by a further 7.9% to $1.57 trillion — 2.3 times its size in 2019.
AI is contributing to advertising growth through increased investment by technology companies seeking to attract customers and build brands, as well as by established businesses competing in a more crowded market. AI tools are also being used to improve targeting, creative production and campaign optimisation.
The report notes that generative search and AI assistants are creating new routes for product discovery and purchasing, which could reshape where consumers encounter brands and where advertisers direct their spending.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta strengthen their share
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are forecast to account for a combined 59.7% of global advertising expenditure outside China in 2026, equivalent to $659.6 billion. Their combined share is expected to rise to 61.5%, or $804.1 billion, by 2028.
Advertising expenditure per person varies widely between markets. WARC forecasts 2026 per-capita spending of $1,395 in the US, $935 in the UK, $850 in Austria and $825 in Switzerland. By comparison, the figures are $170 in China, $110 in Brazil and $13 in India, where large populations offer potential for growth as markets develop.
