Global Retail Media Ad Spend to Overtake Linear TV in 2025

Global retail media ad spend is forecast to pull level with linear TV this year and overtake by next year, according to the latest WARC data global ad spend forecast. 

Ad investment with linear TV is forecast to grow 1.9% this year, driven by global sporting events such as the Olympics, UEFA European Champions, and the US presidential election. It marks only the second calendar year in which linear TV has achieved a positive year-on-year change in spend since 2016 – the other occasion resulting from a post-pandemic recovery in 2021.

In 2025 and 2026, global linear TV ad spend growth is expected to be -5.3% and 1.2% respectively. Connected TV (CTV), however, is forecast to post healthier growth, with ad spend reaching $40.7bn in 2026 from $35.3bn this year. In 2026, global ad spend with CTV will also surpass the total invested in publishing, including magazines and newsbrands.

In contrast, retail media is set to continue its double-digit growth trajectory. The channel is forecast to grow 21.3% this year and 13.8% in 2026, by which point the $201.3bn invested globally will exceed the amount spent with linear TV.

Growing interest and confidence in retail media are driven by the strength of first-party commerce data, measurement standardisation, and improving understanding of the channel. One example is the collaboration between CTV, streaming services, and retail media, as noted in Parmaount+’s recent announcement about its partnership with Walmart.

Around four in five publishers globally are also looking to tap retail media ad spend by embedding products on their web pages. More than two-thirds (69%) of global publishers plan to prioritise retail media revenue over the next 12-18 months, according to a study by Criteo.

Credit: WARC